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Sunday, August 31, 2014
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GBPUSD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD edged lower to 1.6534 and formed a temporary bottom there and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideway trading. But upside of recovery should be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.6534 will extend the fall from 1.7190 to 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6508). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.
In the longer term picture, we're sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are forming the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn't be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we'll then see a more sustainable rebound.

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Friday, August 29, 2014
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THE GREATEST ELMORE LEONARD MOVIE BY A LONG SHOT






Elmore Leonard's work continues to receive the big-screen treatment with this weekend's Life of Crime, a surprisingly sturdy rendition of the author's 1978 novel The Switch about two crooks' (John Hawkes and Mos Def) plan to kidnap a socialite (Jennifer Aniston) and the numerous, absurd complications that quickly ensue. It's the latest in a long line of adaptations of Leonard's writing, which has been the source for countless Westerns and crime movies that, with a few exceptions, have failed to capture his distinctively droll voice. Leonard, who passed away last year at the age of 87, was fond of slamming the worst of that lousy bunch — think 1974's Mr. Majestyk (featuring Charles Bronson), or 1985's Stick, which Burt Reynolds both starred in and directed. His disapproval was with good reason, since despite boasting stories that seem, on the page, a perfect fit for movies, Leonard's novels have rarely made the transition in faithful form. Which is funny, given how influential his style has become throughout pop culture.

The finest entry in the straight translations of his work remains Jackie Brown, Quentin Tarantino's 1997 spin on Leonard's 1992 tome Rum Punch. What Jackie Brown gets right that so many others don't is its conception of protagonists who are just slightly larger than life, and whose convincing (if just a tad exaggerated) emotional needs and hang-ups ensnare them in a web of intrigue, crime, and ill-fated tragedy, all of which plays out via a sprawling multi-character saga that's intimately attuned to its main players' alternately humorous and poignant conditions. Full of stock archetypes (the menacing psycho, the gruff thug, the femme fatale, the young punk, the regal beauty, the sensitive old-timer) made unique by their idiosyncrasies, Tarantino's film captured many of Leonard's tropes, but, crucially, didn't treat Rum Punch as wholly sacrosanct, instead making whatever changes Tarantino saw fit.


That's also what makes Steven Soderbergh's Out of Sight (1998) and Barry Sonnenfeld'sGet Shorty (1995) similar triumphs in the Leonard film canon: a willingness to tweak narrative particulars and storytelling focus (specifically with Out of Sight, which somewhat shifts the focal point from Jennifer Lopez's U.S. Marshal Karen Sisco to George Clooney's thief Jack Foley) in order to get at the underlying mood and attitude of their tales. Leonard's writing exudes a mixture of laid-back cool, pulsating sexuality, heated tension, and subtle melancholy, as well as a dry, bemused fascination with the foibles and failings of men and women. Transporting that sort of humorously world-weary, tough yet touching voice to the screen has been an arduous task for many, in large part because what defines Leonard's best books, from 52 Pick-Up to LaBrava to Swag to Killshot, is not just his particular characters and the Detroit in which they're often set, but a larger, underlying feeling.

And yet Leonard remains imprinted on so many movies of the past half-century, even ones that have no explicit connection to the author. Paul Newman's 1961 Hombre and Delmer Daves's 1957 3:10 to Yuma (and the 2007 remake) are solid versions of Leonard's early Wild West tales, but the lasting impact of those stories was their willingness to portray well-known types (the noble cattle rancher, the black-hearted scoundrel, etc.) in shades of gray, which has carried on to today. Leonard's vision of strong men who were half-good and half-bad helped spawn the following two decades' worth of revisionist oaters from the likes of Sergio Leone (The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly) and Clint Eastwood (High Plains Drifter), who subsequently reimagined the desperado, the rogue, and the rest of the Old West's familiar faces. It's a mode that's now come full circle with Justified, FX's Timothy Olyphant-starring TV series about Leonard's Kentucky Deputy U.S. Federal Marshall Raylan Givens, which relocates an old-school Western vibe in a contemporary setting to pitch-perfect results, thanks in part to writing that, like Jackie Brown, plays fast and loose with specifics in order to stay true to Leonard's wry vision of gunslingers and outlaws.

Leonard's later crime books (52 Pick-Up, Gold Coast, Freaky Deaky, Cuba Libre) have likewise cast a long shadow over genre moviemaking. Steven Soderbergh's follow-up toOut of Sight, 1999's The Limey, also contains traces of the author in its marriage of righteous, vengeance-minded criminal fury and wistful regret and nostalgia — as well as its skewering of California (Hollywood and the entertainment industry being frequent targets of Leonard's satire, as in Get Shorty). That unique Leonard blend is also found in everything from Robert Altman's revisionist take on Raymond Chandler's The Long Goodbye, to Stephen Frears's Jim Thompson-based neo-noir The Grifters, to Peter Yates's magnificent The Friends of Eddie Coyle, to Tarantino and Tony Scott's still-undervalued True Romance, a sprawling epic of crazy dreamers caught up in a tangled mess of drugs, theft, murder, and alluring women that feels like a tonal prequel to Jackie Brown. By treating screwed-up characters engaged in sometimes ugly, sometimes ludicrous behavior with both ironic detachment and empathetic good humor, Leonard's books have set the now-standard mode for current crime cinema and TV, even as they continue to prove hard to adapt into movies you'd actually want to watch.
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A NEW STUDY SAYS WOMEN DON'T LIKE YOUR BEARD AS MUCH AS YOU DO







(esquire.com)Perhaps we really have reached peak beard, just as scientists predicted. A new eBay Fashion survey of 1,000 people seems to indicate so. And as the scientists said, it might be because women just don't like your beard as much as you do. If that's the case, what's the point then, fellas? You didn't nurture your luxurious beard so you could stroke it while you sit around in your stinky sweatpants playing StarCraft, did you? No, I thought not. You did it to get chicks, and with only 55% of surveyed women saying they like beards, that prospect is diminishing by the second. But don't worry, dudes like them. A full 75% of men are backing them, which is great news if you want to just hang out with your friends playing hacky sack all day like a dirty high school hippy. Have fun.



And that's not the least of it. Nearly 52% of women wish there were fewer beards out there, which seems to indicate that some of the women who claim to be able to tolerate your glorious man-mane still wish there weren't quite as many of them out there in the world. Yikes.



And the survey says this all might be having an effect on the popularity of beards, at least on the Internet. Google searches for beards increased between 2011 and 2013, but took a nosedive in 2014, indicating that the early adopters are done with whiskers and that even the late comers know enough about them now that they don't have to search any longer. Probably because they're staring down at their very own crumb crusted face-nest as they silently weep after their girlfriend left them for a clean shaven used-car salesman that looks just like the Patrick Bateman of Scranton. Fare thee well beards, you sure were fuzzy.

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David Cameron promises new UK powers to tackle Isis terror threat

(theguardian) David Cameron and Nick Clegg will embark on intensive negotiations over the weekend to try to agree a fresh round of measures to tackle the threat posed by terror suspects in Britain. The prime minister announced that he would unveil new measures in a statement to parliament on Monday at a televised press conference, on the day that the terror threat to the UK was raised from substantial to severe. Speaking at Downing Street after his return from a pre-referendum trip to Scotland, Cameron said: "It is becoming clear that there are some gaps in our armoury and we need to strengthen them.

We need to do more to stop people travelling, to stop those who do go from returning and to deal decisively with those who are already here." He was speaking amid fears that extremists aligned to Islamic State (Isis) plan to return from the conflict-torn region to mount attacks in western Europe. Cameron said that Isis and other extremists posed a "generational struggle" for the UK and other western countries. Cameron highlighted plans to make it easier to revoke passports for British citizens amid concerns that this power has only been used on 23 occasions in the last year while up to 250 jihadis are thought to have returned to Britain from Iraq and Syria. It is understood that ministers will embed this power in legislation after it was introduced in April last year through royal prerogative executive powers.

The move is designed to make it easier to prevent suspects from travelling to Syria and Iraq. There are separate powers to strip citizenship from UK citizens with dual citizenship. Cameron did not provide more details of his plans. Government sources later confirmed that he and Clegg will have further discussions over the weekend to reach agreement. It is understood that one key area, where Cameron and his deputy have yet to reach agreement, is on terrorism prevention and investigation measures (TPIMs), which replaced control orders. Cameron and Clegg are looking closer at the recommendation by David Anderson, the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, who called for two changes in his annual report in March. Anderson recommended a strengthening of "locational constraints" on those subject to TPIMs to ban them from some areas or to restore the power to relocate them to specific areas. He also called for powers to force those subject to TPIMs to attend probation service meetings.

 Cameron said the beheading of James Foley showed the need to act, though the decision to raise the terror threat alert was not related to the video that featured his killing. He said: "It was clear evidence, not that any more was needed, that this is not some foreign conflict thousands of miles from home that we can hope to ignore. The ambition to create an extremist caliphate in the heart of Iraq and Syria is a threat to our own security here in the UK." He outlined the changes after the home secretary, Theresa May, announced the raising of the terror threat level. May said that raising it from substantial to severe meant that an attack was highly likely, though she said there was no evidence to suggest an attack was imminent. She said the decision was "related to developments in Syria and Iraq, where terrorist groups are planning attacks against the west". She said some of the plots were likely to involve foreign fighters who had travelled to the Middle East from Britain and Europe to take part in the conflicts there. The threat level last stood at severe more than three years ago and it was reduced to substantial on 11 July 2011.

Severe is the fourth level in the five-tier system of alert categories that have been used by the government since 2006 to warn of terrorist activity. The higher level is critical, which is used when an attack is expected imminently. May said the decision to raise the threat level had been taken by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre. "We face a real and serious threat in the UK from international terrorism. I would urge the public to remain vigilant and to report any suspicious activity to the police," she said. Downing Street knew before the defection of the Tory MP Douglas Carswell to Ukip on Thursday that the terror level threat would be raised. It made preparations for Cameron's statement before the Carswell announcement, indicating that the press conference was not an attempt to deflect attention from Tory divisions on Europe.

 Cameron issued a dire warning of the threat posed by extremists at home and abroad as he spoke of the need to tackle support for violent and extremist ideology. He said: "In Afghanistan the Taliban were prepared to play host to al Qaida, the terrorist organisation.With IS we are facing a terrorist organisation not being hosted in a country but seeking to establish and then violently expand its own terrorist state. "With designs on expanding to Jordan, Lebanon, right up to the Turkish border, we could be facing a terrorist state on the shores of the Mediterranean and bordering a Nato member." The prime minister made clear that he would be relentless in tackling supporters of extremist ideology. He said: "The ambition to create an extremist caliphate in the heart of Iraq and Syria is a threat to our own security here in the UK. "The terrorist threat was not created by the Iraq war 10 years ago. it existed even before the horrific attacks on 9/11, themselves some time before the war. "This threat cannot be solved simply by dealing with perceived grievances over Western foreign policy. Nor can it be dealt with by addressing poverty, dictatorship or instability in the region - as important as these things are.

 "The root cause of this threat to our security is quite clear. It is a poisonous ideology of Islamist extremism that is condemned by all faiths and faith leaders." Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said that Labour would work with the government to strengthen TPIMs. She said: "The prime minister is right to say this threat is based on a poisonous ideology of warped Islamic extremism that is condemned by all faiths and all faith leaders. "The head of MI5 warned last year that the threat from Islamist extremism was becoming 'more diffuse, more complicated, more unpredictable', as so many Britons were joining the conflict. I have said to the Home Secretary that we stand ready to work with the Government on any measures that may be needed to respond to the threat."
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#GBPUSD Daily Outlook

(ACTIONFOREX) Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as the consolidation from 1.6534 is still in progress. Another recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside is expected to be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top is expected to extend lower. Below 1.6534 will target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282). In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6506). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart
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Wednesday, August 27, 2014
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#GBPUSD Daily Outlook

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart
 GBP/USD Daily Chart
(actionforex) - GBP/USD's consolidations from 1.6534 continues and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise could be seen. But upside is expected to be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top is expected to extend lower. Below 1.6534 will target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282). In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6506). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.
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#GBPUSD Mid-Day Outlook

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart
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(actionforex.com) - GBP/USD's consolidations from 1.6534 continues today with another recovery. Further rise could be seen. But upside is expected to be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top is expected to extend lower. Below 1.6534 will target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282). In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6506). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.
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Tuesday, August 26, 2014
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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for some consolidations above 1.6534 temporary low. Upside of recovery is expected to be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top is expected to extend lower. Below 1.6534 will target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282). In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6506). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.

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Soros’s Argentine Bond Bet Revealed in Lawsuit in London



Less than a month after Argentinadefaulted for the second time in 13 years,George Soros has suddenly emerged as a key rival of fellow billionaire Paul Singer in the legal fight over the nation’s debt.

According to court documents filed inLondon last week, Quantum Partners LP, a fund managed by Soros’s family office, has joined a group of investors suing bond trustee Bank of New York Mellon Corp. for failing to distribute 226 million euros ($298 million) of interest payments on Argentine debt. The group, which also includes Kyle Bass’s Hayman Capital Management LP, owns more than 1.3 billion of euro-denominated bonds, court documents obtained by Bloomberg News show.

At the crux of the dispute is a U.S. court ruling won by Singer’s Elliott Management Corp., which blocked Argentina from paying its overseas bonds until the country compensates him and other holders of debt from its 2001 default. While the ruling prevents BNY Mellon from transferring any money deposited by Argentina until Singer is paid, it shouldn’t apply to bonds governed by jurisdictions outside of the U.S., the group says.

“The trustee isn’t acting in its official capacity as trustee,” Bass said in a telephone interview fromNew York. “Our interest payment is governed by U.K. law, which hasn’t ruled on this. Until there’s a similar injunction in the U.K., they owe us our interest payments.”
Legal Pursuit

Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Soros, declined to comment. Stephen Spruiell, a spokesman for New York-based Elliott, didn’t return e-mails seeking comment on the lawsuit.

Singer, who also sued the governments of Peru and the Republic of Congo after they reneged on their obligations, bought Argentine bonds before its $95 billion default in 2001.

After a more than decade-long legal pursuit for full repayment, Singer and other creditors who refused to accept losses of 70 percent to provide Argentina debt relief are now owed $1.5 billion as of result of the U.S. court orders.

Soros, meanwhile, has been an investor in the South American country for decades, having joined a group that purchased Argentine real estate company IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones SA in the early 1990s.

On June 26, Argentina deposited $539 million into an account at BNY Mellon for an interest payment on its foreign-currency bonds due four days later -- without also depositing the amount owed to the holdout creditors led by Singer.
‘Illegal’ Payment

U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa called the payment “illegal” and prohibited New York-based BNY Mellon from distributing the funds to bondholders.

A default was triggered on July 30, after Argentina failed to reach a settlement with the holdouts by the end of a grace period for making the interest payments. The money remains at BNY Mellon’s account in Buenos Aires.

Argentina revoked the authorization of two BNY Mellon officials for failing to provide local financing, according to an Aug. 25 resolution. The lender had no operations in the country since December 2012, the document said.

In the U.K. lawsuit, Soros, Bass, Knighthead Capital Management LLC and RGY Investments LLC said that BNY Mellon’s London-based unit acted “consistently to protect its own interests, without reference to the interests of the beneficiaries,” according to the documents.

The bondholder group asked the London court to require BNY Mellon to disburse the money to holders of Argentina’s euro-denominated bonds and prevent the bank from doing anything else with the cash.
‘Without Merit’

“The suit is without merit,” Ron Gruendl, a spokesman for BNY Mellon, said in a statement on Aug. 22. “BNY Mellon has consistently followed the binding court orders that govern its actions as trustee in this matter.”

A separate group of investors in euro-denominated bonds plans on appealing Griesa’s ruling in New York. Last year, that group sued Bank of New York Mellon Brussels and Brussels-based Euroclear SA in Belgian court. The outcome of a Sept. 9 hearing set for that case will be “important” for investors and the holdouts, said Bass.

Euroclear, the world’s biggest settlement system, has said the orders are in violation of Belgian law, which prohibits the obstruction of cash transfers made by settlement agents. The law was established in 2004 after an appeals court in Brussels overturned a lower-court order that had prevented Euroclear from accepting or making any payments on Nicaraguan bonds at the request of holdout creditors.
Distributing Payments

Citigroup Inc.’s Argentina unit is also appealing a decision by the judge that bars the bank from distributing payments on securities issued under Argentine law. Fintech Advisory Inc., a hedge fund run by David Martinez, who has litigated against Singer in other cases, said on Aug. 19 it will also appeal Griesa’s ruling.

“Clearly there’s a process of trying to carve out legal and local law” from the ruling,’’ Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America fixed-income strategy at Jefferies Group LLC, said by phone from New York. “The euro bondholders are aggressively trying to separate U.K. law from this expansive injunction.”

Argentina’s euro-denominated debt has outperformed its dollar bonds since the default, with yields on notes due 2033 rising about 2 percentage points, compared with a 2.7-point increase on same-maturity dollar bonds. The spread between the securities widened 15 basis points today to 45 basis points, the biggest since January.
Soros Investments

Soros, the world’s 23rd wealthiest person, met with Argentina’s President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner last year to discuss investment in the country, according to local newspaper BAE. Soros Fund Management LLC more than doubled its stake in Argentina’s state-owned oil producerYPF SA (YPF), adding 8.47 million shares in the second quarter, according to an Aug. 14 filing. Soros’s 3.5 percent stake worth $450 million makes him the fourth-biggest private holder.

Soros also owned 25.9 million shares worth about $244.6 million in South American agricultural company Adecoagro SA as of June 30, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. That works out to a 21 percent stake, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Economy Minister Axel Kicillof has called on bondholders to demand their money from BNY Mellon, saying the nation fulfilled its obligations and isn’t in default.

“In a broader sense, what’s going on right now is the chickens coming home to roost,” Tim Samples, a professor of legal studies at the University of Georgia, said in a telephone interview. “People have been warning for years about the complexities and burdens for third parties in this case and we’re just seeing that unfold.”

(An earlier version of this story corrected the dollar amount of Adecoagro shares Soros owns in the 22nd paragraph.)

By Katia Porzecanski and Camila Russo Aug 27, 2014 4:18 AM GMT+0700
To contact the reporters on this story: Katia Porzecanski in New York atkporzecansk1@bloomberg.net; Camila Russo in Buenos Aires atcrusso15@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Michael Tsang at mtsang1@bloomberg.net; Bradley Keoun at bkeoun@bloomberg.net Lester Pimentel, Bradley Keoun
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Gaza ceasefire takes hold as focus turns to longer term

Palestinian children hold guns as they celebrate with others what they said was a victory over Israel, following a ceasefire in Gaza City August 26, 2014.  REUTERS-Suhaib Salem
(Reuters) - A ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinians aimed at ending their seven-week conflict in Gaza appeared to be holding early on Wednesday as the focus shifted to securing an arrangement for the long term.

No clear victor emerged from what had become a war of attrition between the Middle East's most powerful armed forces and the dominant Hamas militant movement in the Gaza Strip.

Exacting a heavy toll in Palestinian lives and property, Israel said it dealt a strong blow to Hamas, killing several of its military leaders and destroying the group's cross-border infiltration tunnels.

But Israel also faced persistent rocket fire for nearly two months that caused an exodus from a number of border communities and became part of daily life in its commercial heartland.

Palestinian and Egyptian officials said the deal, which was mediated in Cairo and took effect on Tuesday evening, called for an indefinite halt to hostilities, the immediate opening of Gaza's blockaded crossings with Israel and Egypt and a widening of the territory's fishing zone in the Mediterranean.

A senior official of the Islamist group Hamas, which runs Gaza, voiced willingness for the security forces of Western-backed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the unity government he formed in June to control the passage points.

Both Israel and Egypt view Hamas as a security threat and are seeking guarantees that weapons will not enter the territory of 1.8 million people.

Under a second stage of the truce that would begin a month later, Israel and the Palestinians would discuss the construction of a Gaza sea port and Israel's release of Hamas prisoners in the occupied West Bank, possibly in a trade for body parts of two Israeli soldiers believed held by Hamas, the officials said.

TAKING STOCK

After the ceasefire began, crowds and traffic filled the streets of Gaza. Car horns blared and recorded chants praising God sounded from mosque loudspeakers. Celebratory gunfire killed one Palestinian and wounded 19 others, hospital officials said.

"Today we declare the victory of the resistance, today we declare the victory of Gaza," Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said.

Israel gave a low-key response to the truce, saying it would facilitate the flow of civilian goods and humanitarian and reconstruction aid into the impoverished territory if the "open-ended" ceasefire was honored.

"We have no problem with civilian support for Gaza," said Mark Regev, a spokesman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "We don’t want to see Hamas rebuild its military machine."

Many residents of southern Israel remained skeptical, and some officials recommended against returning home too soon.

"We had ceasefires in the past that didn't succeed or work out well, and (Hamas) continued with their terror, destruction, with all their craziness, and we no longer believe them," said Israeli Meirav Danino outside a supermarket in the border town of Sderot that for years has been hit by rockets.

The United States and United Nations urged both sides to comply with the terms of the agreement.

"We are all aware that this is an opportunity, not a certainty," said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. "We have been down this road before and we are all aware of the challenges ahead."

Palestinian health officials say 2,139 people, most of them civilians, including more than 490 children, have been killed in the enclave since July 8, when Israel launched an offensive with the declared aim of ending rocket salvoes.

Sixty-four Israeli soldiers and six civilians in Israel have been killed - a civilian died after the ceasefire was announced from a mortar attack earlier in the day.

Thousands of homes in the Gaza Strip have been destroyed or damaged in the most prolonged Israeli-Palestinian fighting since a 2000-2005 Palestinian uprising. The United Nations has named a panel to investigate possible war crimes committed by both sides.

The Palestinian Center for Human Rights said 540,000 people had been displaced in the Gaza Strip. Israel has said Hamas bears responsibility for civilian casualties because it operates among non-combatants and uses schools and mosques to store weapons and as launch sites for rockets.

"We have mixed feelings. We are in pain for the losses but we are also proud we fought this war alone and we were not broken," said Gaza teacher Ahmed Awf, 55, as he held his two-year-old son in his arms and joined in the street festivities.

Many of the thousands of rockets fired at Israel were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti-missile system, a partly U.S.-funded project hailed by many Israelis as an example of their nation's high-tech capabilities.

But short-range mortar bombs rained down on farming communities and towns near the Gaza border, putting into question the start of the school year in the area on Sept. 1.
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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for some consolidations above 1.6534 temporary low. Upside of recovery is expected to be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top is expected to extend lower. Below 1.6534 will target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6506). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.





GBPUSD Outlook | Written by ActionForex.com | Aug 26 14 13:48 GMT
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GBP/USD Daily Outlook



Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6542; (P) 1.6570; (R1) 1.6604; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for some consolidations. Upside of recovery is expected to be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top is expected to extend lower. Below 1.6534 will target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6506). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.





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GBPUSD Outlook | Written by ActionForex.com | Aug 26 14 06:49 GMT



Monday, August 25, 2014
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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook


Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6556; (P) 1.6576; (R1) 1.6593; More...

A temporary low is in place at 1.6534 with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery is expected to be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top is expected to extend lower. Below 1.6534 will target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6506). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.







Written by ActionForex.com | Aug 25 14 12:30 GMT

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook


GBPUSD Outlook | Written by ActionForex.com | Aug 25 14 12:30 GMT

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6556; (P) 1.6576; (R1) 1.6593; More...

A temporary low is in place at 1.6534 with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery is expected to be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top is expected to extend lower. Below 1.6534 will target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6506). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.







Sunday, August 24, 2014
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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

GBP/USD's decline extends as the week starts and intraday bias remains on the downside. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top should extend to 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282). Meanwhile, break of 1.6737 resistance is needed to be the first indication of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.


In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. Focus now turns to 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.6506). Sustained trading there will pave the way for 1.4813 key support and below.


GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart
GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart
GBP/USD Daily Chart

 Written by ActionForex.com | Aug 25 14 04:16 GMT

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Strong Earthquake Shakes Bay Area in California






NAPA, Calif. — A strong earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.0 hit the San Francisco Bay Area early Sunday morning, causing injuries and damage in Napa and knocking out power to thousands of people across the region.

The temblor struck about 10 miles northwest of American Canyon — six miles south of Napa — around 3:20 a.m., according to the United States Geological Survey. It was the most powerful earthquake to hit the Bay Area since the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989, which collapsed the Bay Bridge. At least four aftershocks were reported Sunday.

Queen of the Valley Medical Center in Napa treated more than 87 patients in its emergency room on Sunday morning, said a spokeswoman for the hospital, Vanessa DeGier. The injuries were largely limited to cuts and abrasions, Ms. DeGier said. Most patients were released after treatment, but some people were also admitted for more severe injuries — including a hip fracture and a heart attack. One patient, a child said to be in critical condition, was airlifted to a hospital in Santa Rosa.

Four homes were destroyed by a fire at a mobile home park, Napa officials said, and two others were still burning. At at least two buildings downtown were severely damaged. About 50 gas main breaks were reported, along with at least one water main break, Napa officials said. Portions of two highways, one of which buckled about a foot during the earthquake, were closed on Sunday morning, and power remained out to more than 60,000 customers.

Two residents of the mobile home park, Lynda and Bob Castell-Blanch, both 60, said they were jarred awake by a loud thump and roll.

“It was violent,” Mr. Castell-Blanch said. “Things were flying all over the place. There was woman screaming from one of the houses, so loud it was total mayhem.”

The couple said they had enough time to gather their cats and his vintage guitars before evacuating. “That was all we had time for,” Mr. Castell-Blanch said, while they were trying to buy water at a store down the road from the mobile home park.

The shelves at the store, the Ranch Market, had been emptied into the aisles. The smell of wine wafted throughout.

Arik Housley, the store’s owner, estimated at least $100,000 in damage at the two markets he owns in the area. He said that, like many people, he did not carry earthquake insurance because of the high premium.

At a restaurant next door, workers could be seen sweeping up broken glass and spilled wine.

Janet Upton, a resident of Napa in the wine country northeast of San Francisco, said she awoke early Sunday morning to violent shaking and the sound of loud crashing all around her, soon followed by rolling waves.

“The house is just trashed,” said Ms. Upton, who is a spokeswoman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection and is married to Scott Upton, the Napa County fire chief.

“My kitchen is a wreck; it’s all down” Ms. Upton said. “The TV, all the stuff on the walls. A huge dresser just barely missed my daughter.”

Buildings across the city were damaged, including the county courthouse, a historic building.

“There’s collapses, fires,” the Napa fire captain, Doug Bridewell, told The Associated Press as he stood in front of large pieces of masonry that broke loose from a turn-of-the-century office building where a fire had just been extinguished. “That’s the worst shaking I’ve ever been in.”



Mr. Bridewell, who said he had to climb over fallen furniture in his own home to check on his family before reporting to duty, said he was starting to see more reports of injuries.

In her neighborhood, Ms. Upton said the chimneys of several homes were knocked off, while the front of another home had sheared off. The entire area smelled strongly of gas, she said. The sound of sirens continued unabated for two hours after the earthquake, she added, but it had since quieted down.

“We helped all neighbors turn their gas off,” Ms. Upton said. “I’m just grateful my family and neighbors are all OK.”

At least two aftershocks shook the area on Sunday morning, though neither was as strong as the initial earthquake, which hit between two major faults at a depth of 6.7 miles below the surface, according to the Geological Survey.

California transportation officials were still examining the region’s bridges for any damage, but they appeared to have survived the earthquake unscathed.

“No abnormalities have been found on any of the bridges at this time,” said Tamie McGowen, a spokeswoman for the California Department of Transportation.

The geological agency said the depth of the earthquake was just less than seven miles, and numerous small aftershocks had occurred in the Napa wine country.

“A quake of that size in a populated area is, of course, widely felt throughout that region,” Randy Baldwin, a geophysicist with the United States Geological Survey in Golden, Colo., told The Associated Press. “The 6.0 is a sizable quake for this area. It’s a shallow quake. It’s about 6 miles deep. We received hundreds of reports on our website from people that felt it in the surrounding area.”



http://www.nytimes.com/
Jim Kerstetter reported from Napa, Calif., and Ian Lovett from Los Angeles. Rick Rojas contributed reporting from New York.
AUG. 24, 2014
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Why Interest Rates Need to Stay Low


A sharp debate within the Federal Reserve over when to raise interest rateswas publicly aired last week at the annual central bankers’ conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo. On one side is a small yet vocal minority of Fed officials who want to head off inflation by raising rates sooner rather than later. On the other is a majority that thinks a near-term rate hike would stifle growth and, with it, any chance of restoring health to the labor market. That group includes Janet Yellen, the Fed’s chairwoman, and most members of the Fed’s policy committee.

The economic evidence indisputably favors Ms. Yellen, who has indicated that rate increases should not begin until sometime next year, at the earliest. It will take until then to be able to say with confidence whether recent improvements in growth and hiring are sustainable. For now, the prospects for both are mixed at best, with the preponderance of evidence — including the Fed’s own analysis — indicating that growth this year will average out around a still-sluggish 2.3 percent. That is too slow to reliably boost the number and quality of jobs and, as such, too slow to justify raising rates.

It is also unknown whether growth and hiring, if and when they fully recover, will spark inflation. For that to occur, wage increases would have to be substantial enough to push up prices, meaning annual raises in excess of 3.5 percent given present rates of inflation and productivity growth. Wage increases of that magnitude are not in the cards, and neither is any hint of worrisome inflation. Since the economic recovery began in mid-2009, hourly wages have risen by a mere 1.9 percent a year on average.

Against that backdrop, arguing in favor of a near-term rate increase is to argue for subpar wage growth and for continuing a status quo in which economic gains flow largely into profits rather than wages. Ms. Yellen and her supporters are right to rebut that stance in both word and deed.

The debate over interest rates does not stop there. Another argument in favor of near-term rate increases is that the Fed’s prolonged low-rate policy is inflating asset bubbles that could burst with harmful consequences. Unlike the inflation argument, for which there is no evidence, concern about bubbles is justified.

The Fed’s loose policies have pushed up stock, bond and real estate prices — which is, in fact, the point of a low-rate policy. There is legitimate debate about how overvalued assets may be. But low rates, by fostering investments with borrowed money, invariably create the conditions for bubbles.

The answer, however, is not to raise rates, slowing the entire economy in order to tame the markets. The answer, laid out in recent remarks by Ms. Yellen and Stanley Fischer, the Fed vice chairman, is to use bank regulation and financial oversight to ensure that institutions and investors do not use low rates as a springboard for speculating.

That requires identifying and stopping reckless lending of the sort that has surfaced in subprime auto loans and unaffordable student loans. And it requires vigilance for signs of systemic risk in the complex activities that make institutions interdependent. Here the Fed is still too lax, as in itsrecent indulgence of too-big-too-fail banks that have failed to meet regulatory demands intended to reduce risks and prevent bailouts.

There is no guarantee that keeping rates low for a “considerable period,” as the Fed leadership has pledged, will propel the economy forward. But it is all but certain the economy will backslide if rates are raised too soon. That’s because the economy’s critical underpinning — good jobs at good pay — has not yet been restored, and until it is, monetary support from the Fed and fiscal support from Congress are needed. Fiscal support has been withdrawn and reversed in recent years, a misguided move that has needlessly depressed growth and represents a failure of both policy and politics. Raising rates too soon would be a policy error on a par with that debacle, a mistake that the economy can ill afford.

http://www.nytimes.com/
By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
AUG. 23, 2014
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Manchester City v Liverpool: match preview


This is only the second match of the season yet there is the potential double reward of a title rival being defeated plus crucial momentum achieved. As the deal for Mario Balotelli was not done in time for the forward to be available for Liverpool, Manchester City must surely fancy their chances of finishing Monday evening with all three points, especially as only Alvaro Negredo and Eliaquim Mangala are unavailable to Manuel Pellegrini. Jamie Jackson

Kick-off Monday 8pm

Venue Etihad Stadium

Last season Man City 2 Liverpool 1

Live Sky Sports 1

Referee Michael Oliver

This season G1, Y2, R0, 2.0 cards per game

Odds H 13-15 A 3-1 D 3-1


Manchester City v Liverpool: 
probable starters in bold, contenders in light
Manchester City

Subs from Caballero, Wright, Nastasic, Richards, Boyata, Fernando, Milner, Guidetti, Sinclair, Sagna, Lampard, Navas, Agüero, Clichy

Doubtful None

Injured Negredo (foot, 21 Sep), Mangala (match fitness, unknown)

Suspended None

Form W

Discipline Y5 R0

Leading scorers Agüero, Silva 1
Liverpool

Subs from Jones, Johnson, Touré, José Enrique, Markovic, Lambert, Coates, Sakho, Lucas, Can, Suso, Ibe

Doubtful None

Injured Lallana (knee, 1 Sep), Flanagan (knee, 1 Sep), Agger (knee, unknown), Borini (shoulder, unknown)

Suspended None

Form W

Discipline Y1 R0

Leading scorers Sterling, Sturridge 1



The Guardian, Friday 22 August 2014 17.14 BST
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